Day 656: The odds of each Election Day possibility and what each would mean

Tens of millions of Americans from across the country have already cast early votes in the 2018 midterm elections, with tens of millions more casting their votes on Election Day Tuesday. Largely seen as a referendum on the Donald Trump administration, voters are casting ballots for 35 Senate seats, all 435 House of Representative seats, 36 Governor seats, thousands of seats at the state and local level, and referendums, amendments and propositions.

At the Congressional level, Republicans currently control both the House and Senate. Tuesday, there are four possible outcomes. Below is a brief version on the effect each scenario would have, and the odds of each using FiveThirtyEight’s Classic Forecasting Model.

(Note: The methodology used below to derive odds is being used to show an approximation of the odds based on polling data and other election fundamentals. However, since individual polls are calculated independently, and actual votes are decidedly not inherently independent of each other, this methodology has an inherent flaw. For instance, while the odds for Democrats to win the Senate are only 19.1 percent, if they do win the Senate on Election Day, their odds of winning the House will be substantially higher than the currently estimated 87.9 percent. On the other hand, if Democrats lose the Senate, as expected, their odds to win the House will be marginally lower than 87.9 percent.)

• SCENARIO 1: Republicans win the House, Republicans win the Senate: More of the status quo and the nightmare of the last two years continues. Republicans would continue their assault on healthcare rights, benefits and entitlements, and they would allow Trump to have virtually unchecked power. Democrats would continue to be pushed to the margins and have very little say in anything from legislation to judicial appointments, and Trump would likely become bolder, finding more resolve in a resounding victory. ODDS: 9.8 percent.
• SCENARIO 2: Democrats win the House, Democrats win the Senate: Complete upheaval of the status quo. Democrats can put legislation on Trump’s desk and force him to veto it. Legislation is driven entirely by Democrats and Republicans take a backseat in all committees. Judicial and political nominees would slow to a crawl as Trump’s choices would be forced to be far more moderate than the largely far-right wing picks he’s tapped so far, especially on the judicial side. Investigations of various scandals would commence in committees in each chamber from things ranging from Trump’s handling of the Hurricane Maria disaster to Cabinet members’ spending habits to emoluments issues to Trump’s tax returns to Trump’s dealings with Russia and Saudi Arabia and more. Impeachment becomes a distinct possibility with a trial in the Senate to follow. A real check-and-balance would exist between the executive branch and legislative branch for the first time in two years. Robert Mueller’s investigation would be protected because if he were to be fired, the Senate or House could simply hire him to investigate on their behalf. Trump — though unlikely to publicly admit it or take any blame — would be immediately humbled. ODDS: 16.8 percent.
• SCENARIO 3: Democrats win the House, Republicans win the Senate: Legislation requires much more compromise, investigations occur in the House, judicial nominees continue with same heavy slant and pace in the Senate. Considering the many retiring Republicans in the House and the lack of purple state Republicans up for re-election in the Senate, this is by far the most likely scenario on Election Day. Democrats would get to control legislation on one side of Congress, but the Senate can ignore it. The same is true in reverse. Impeachment odds stay at a similar likelihood, since that’s controlled entirely by the House and would need only a simple majority to bring charges. However the odds of a conviction — which requires two-thirds of the Senate — would remain minimal no matter how clear the proof of criminal wrongdoing. Democrats would control the House’s committees and would be free to investigate what they see fit. They would have subpoena power and could investigate the same issues described in Scenario 2, while Republicans would retain their current control in the Senate’s committees. The Mueller probe would also be far more protected than it is in its current situation. ODDS: 71.1 percent.
• SCENARIO 4: Democrats win the Senate, Republicans win the House: Legislation requires much more compromise, investigations occur in the Senate, judicial nominees slow as Trump is forced to find more moderate selections. This is overwhelmingly the least likely option. If Democrats win enough seats to flip the Senate, it would be nearly impossible for them to lose the House. Conversely, if Republicans win the House, they are extremely likely to add to their current 51–49 edge in the Senate. ODDS: 2.3 percent.

656 days in, 806 to go

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