Day 64: No one knows how the House will vote on the health care bill
Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind the House’s proposed health care bill, the American Health Care Act. AHCA is being touted as Step 1 on the plan to repeal and replace Obamacare.
A loss for the bill is a loss for Trump and hurts his credibility as a great negotiator. It would also be a loss for Republicans still trying to get their act together more than two months into having total control of Congress and the executive branch.
The problems with the bill are obvious: millions of people will become uninsured, doctors and hospitals are overwhelmingly against it, the language of the bill is largely unknown, the substance is getting edited constantly, backroom deals are getting done to assuage hardliners, the Senate is unlikely to pass it, it’s going to basically help only the wealthy and insurance industry, it has more to do with taxes than actual healthcare and it’s insanely unpopular.
And yet, pass it may.
The math is simple: 0 Democrats will support the bill. The Republicans can only afford 21 GOP defections; 22 kills the bill on the floor.
The most fervently opposed on the right, ironically, are the most diametrically opposed to Democrats: the uber-conservative House Freedom Caucus.
Democrats are obviously against the bill since it seeks to do undo most of Obamacare. The HFC is largely against the bill since it doesn’t do enough to undo Obamacare. The powerful billionaire Koch brothers have promised substantial reelection funds for those who vote against the bill for the same reason.
Many moderates, predominately those in blue or purple districts, are torn: ripping health coverage from those that rely on it will cost them votes, but so can failing to support what is allegedly part of the repeal and replace promise.
Trump is getting restless and issuing demands that may or may not be bluffs.
The vote count and the leans and the supporters and the opposers are changing by the minute.
The only thing that’s for sure at this point is that no one is sure of anything.
64 days in, 1398 to go
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