Day 508: Trump’s belief that he can figure out North Korea’s goals within a minute is naive and betrays a lack of preparation

In the run-up to the Singapore summit between the U.S. and North Korea, Donald Trump answered a few questions from reporters. One asked when he would know if North Korea was serious about denuclearizing. Trump responded that he’d know quickly. As in, within 60 seconds.

Trump once claimed that had he been at a meeting with the Soviet delegation regarding denuclearizing in the 1980s, upon their walking in to the room he would have immediately shouted an expletive, gotten up and left.

So his instincts in this realm may not be perfect.

But on top of that, his comment betrays two key issues: 1) he is incredibly naive, and 2) he hasn’t done his homework.

On the naive side, it would be foolish for any nation to put all their cards on the table so soon. Feeling out an adversary, especially with one you’ve never met and are extremely unfamiliar, is vital. Simply “looking a man in the eyes to get a feel for him” is not really an effective approach when nations negotiate. Trump’s belief that he can rely on his gut when never having done anything like this before is not only overestimating his own abilities, it’s underestimating the North Koreans. This is a remarkably dangerous combination.

Furthermore, the fact that Trump is making the “within the first minute” comment at all reveals something else: he’s not adequately prepared. As these types of meetings get closer and closer, it’s typical for higher-ups in each government to engage and get a feel for what each side is looking for and what the expectations are. Trump, meanwhile, has been warring with longtime allies, playing a ton of golf, inventing conspiracy theories and ranting about the Robert Mueller investigation non-stop. His comment reveals that either his team hasn’t done nearly enough background work, he’s unprepared or both.

Trump may very well stumble into some sort of deal, even if many in the U.S. are concerned he’s overeager to accept any deal. But any success won’t be due to understanding the situation or proper preparation.

508 days in, 954 to go

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