Day 465: Trump is wrong. He’s never been more popular than Obama.

Donald Trump is obsessed with polls numbers. Like, needs readouts of his popularity every day or two obsessed. His team know that and often feeds him numbers that have little correlation to reality.

He then announces the results of these ambiguous poll numbers as if they’re fact.

Trump’s false belief of his own popularity is reinforced by his desire to avoid any situation where he can experience real push-back. He eschews media interviews with everyone but the most conservative stations, and he makes appearances — like Saturday night’s rally in Michigan — that allow him to be surrounded by supporters and insulated from everyone else. His team is willing to take longer routes in his motorcade so he doesn’t see the stirrings of unhappiness. On top of all of that, he watches Fox News non-stop for self-affirmation.

But regardless of what he tweets, he’s simply not more popular than Barack Obama was at this point in his presidency.

FiveThirtyEight tracks presidential popularity over time using almost all polls and weighting them based on methodological standards and historical accuracy. At this point in his presidency, Obama’s popularity was at 48 percent. Trump, meanwhile, is less popular at this point than anyone since Jimmy Carter, with both men polling in a dead heat at around 40 percent at Day 464.

It’s not just a today snapshot either: according to polling data, Trump has never been more popular than Obama at any point of their respective presidencies.

465 days in, 997 to go

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