Day 419: It Sure Looks Like a Blue Wave is Coming
Trump, tax bill, outside cash not enough for GOP as Democrats flip PA-18.
In the run-up to the special election for the House seat for Pennsylvania’s 18th District, outside Republican groups poured in millions of dollars. Donald Trump and his children appeared in the district to campaign for the GOP candidate. Republicans touted their tax bill and accused the Democrat of being weak on immigration.
In a district that is 94 percent white and was carried by Trump by a 20-point margin over Hillary Clinton just 18 months ago, it wasn’t enough.
Democrat Conor Lamb defeated Republican Rick Saccone by a couple hundred votes.
Lamb, a 33-year old Marine veteran, campaigned on ideas of universal health care, a woman’s right to choose, expanded background checks for would-be firearm purchasers and against Trump’s tax cut. He courted organized labor groups and pushed for stronger unions.
This was no marginally left-of-center Democrat pushing generic ideas. Lamb was a candidate dialed into his constituency’s needs and advocated for policies that he believed in.
For Republicans, the take away with the midterms rapidly approaching: look out. Lamb was in a heavy Republican district where Democrats often didn’t even field a challenger to the GOP-held seat. Lamb was outspent and opposed directly by Trump. The biggest Republican talking points — the tax bill and immigration — were ineffective.
In 2017, after Democrats lost five special elections in deep red districts that were far closer than they should have been, Republicans, including Trump, waved a hand and said the results were all that mattered.
After Democrat Ralph Northam beat Republican Ed Gillespie for the governorship in Virginia, Trump and right-wing media claimed that Gillespie didn’t embrace Trump enough, even though Trump publicly endorsed him.
When Democrats flipped a Senate seat in Alabama — Alabama! —Republicans blamed flawed candidate Roy Moore, despite that fact that he also received an endorsement from Trump.
In the wake of Tuesday’s special election, the voting trend is readily apparent. Special elections have not been a random confluence of results, but rather a clear shift left — even in deep red areas — all across the country. Democrats have already flipped a substantial number of state legislature seats nationwide. Absent a substantial change in the coming months, the last year and a half of elections have been a bellwether of what could be a historic 2018 midterm campaign for Democrats.
419 days in, 1043 to go
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